Business Cycle Dating

Turning points of the mexican business cycles, 1980-2020

Recesión Expansión Ciclo
Ciclos desde
1980
Inicio
Fin
(Valle)
Duración
(meses)
Inicio
Fin
(Pico)
Duración
(meses)
Duración
(meses)
1 Diciembre
1981
Junio
1983
19 Julio
1983
Septiembre
1985
27 46
2 Octubre
1985
Diciembre
1986
15 Enero
1987
Noviembre
1994
95 110
   
3   
Diciembre
1994
Mayo
1995

6
Junio
1995
Septiembre
2000

64

70
   
4   

Octubre
2000

Enero
2002

16

Febrero
2002

Junio
2008

77

93
   
5   

Julio
2008

Mayo
2009

11

Junio
2009

Mayo
2019

120

131
   
6   

Junio
2019

Mayo
2020

12

Junio
2020
   
   
   
   
   
   

The following graph shows the chronology and duration, in months, of the different cycles and their respective phases. It is then that the CFCEM identified 5 complete cycles plus a recession corresponding to ta new cycle. The average duration of the complete cycles was 90 months. The shortest cycle, from 1981 to 1985 lasted 46 months and the longest one, from 2008 to 2019 spanned 131 months. As is often the case when following the classical cycle approach, recessions in general were shorter than the recoveries, with the average duration of recessions being 13.2 months, while that of recoveries was 76.6 months. The shortest recession was the one from 1994 to 1995 which lasted for only 6 months, while the longest was the one from 1981 to 1983 that lasted 19 months. Regarding the recoveries, the shortest was the one from 1983 to 1985 which took 19 months, while the longest one was from 2009 to 2019 which lasted 120 months.

Chronology and duration of business cycles and its phases in the Mexican economy, 1980-2020